000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT DEC 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWING 50 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WITHIN A NARROW SWATH...SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS...LAST NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THESE STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID MORNING OF TODAY. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX MORE WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TO 25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS THE SEA HEIGHTS IN ORDER TO REACH 21 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W DURING THE STORM EVENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... CONVECTION VALID 0900 UTC SAT DEC 05... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 06N78W...TO 02N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 01N TO 04N. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 03N92W TO 02N104W TO 06N121W TO 03N135W TO 04N140W. AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N110W TO 06N120W TO 04N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W...FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 127W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THROUGH 32N114W TO 30N116W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N125W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTER TO 25N140W. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TROPICS TOWARD THE ITCZ...AND FROM 122W WESTWARD...WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 08N118W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FEET. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AGAIN FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...BRING 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 06N TO 19N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE TIME WILL SEE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET FROM 110W WESTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT...20-25 KT N OF 31N...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N140W ON SAT EVENING. GUIDANCE LOSES TRACK OF THIS FRONT BY SUNDAY...BUT IT INDICATES ANOTHER BATCH OF ASSOCIATED 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON SAT...AND PROPAGATE E ARRIVING AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON MONDAY EVENING. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT CURRENT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE SURGES WILL SPREAD SW AND MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AS WELL AS NW SWELL...RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS TO AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 07N93W DURING THIS WEEKEND. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH ON SATURDAY. THESE FRESH NW WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE SEA HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FEET IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS. $$ MT