000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT DEC 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE EXPECTED TO SOON INCREASE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WITHIN A NARROW SWATH SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TILL ABOUT SUNRISE
ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID MORNING SAT SUPPORTING
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON...THEN CONTINUE
TO RELAX WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES TO 30 KT ON MON NIGHT AND TO 25
KT ON TUE NIGHT. WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 21 FT
NEAR 14.5N95.5W DURING THE STORM EVENT. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 06N73W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY TO THE WSW OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC...GENERALLY TO THE N OF 02N
E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
04N78W TO 04N88W. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N93W AND
EXTENDS W TO 04N107W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT
06N110W...THEN CONTINUES W TO TO 06N120W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF
02N108W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 117-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N134W TO 04N140W. 

THE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS S TO N FROM 05.5N110W TO
11N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FLARING E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N108.5W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG POSITION FROM 32N116W
TO 29N120W...WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT AT 32N128W AND IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT ENE TO NEAR 32N124W ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO
25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE N OF THE ITCZ
AND W OF 122W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ARE MIXING WITH
FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 08N118W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS
OF 8-13 FT.

THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AGAIN EARLY SAT WITH STRONG
NE TRADES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06-18N W OF 132W ON
SAT NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 122W ON
SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E MERGING WITH NE SWELL FROM THE
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ON SUN AND ALSO REACH THE EQUATOR TO W OF 100W
ON SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUBSIDES SWELL RATHER QUICKLY AND EXPECT
SEAS OF 9-11 FT TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
TO THE N OF 28N LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SAT. HEN EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF 5-7 FT TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FROM THE N. 
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE ARE INCREASING TO 15-20
KT...20-25 KT N OF 31N...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DIP INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N140W ON SAT EVENING. GUIDANCE LOSES
TRACK OF THIS FRONT BY SUN...BUT INDICATES ANOTHER BATCH OF
ASSOCIATED 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON
SAT...AND PROPAGATE E ARRIVING AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON
MON EVENING.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NE SWELL FROM
THESE SURGES WILL SPREAD SW AND MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHERLY SWELL...AS WELL AS NW SWELL...RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS
TO AS FAR S AS 08N92W THIS WEEKEND.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH ON SAT. THESE FRESH NW
WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...THEN DIMINISH FROM THE N ON MON. EXPECT SEAS TO
BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS.

$$
NELSON