000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI DEC 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WITHIN A NARROW SWATH SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TILL ABOUT SUNRISE ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID MORNING SAT SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON...THEN CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES TO 30 KT ON MON NIGHT AND TO 25 KT ON TUE NIGHT. WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 21 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W DURING THE STORM EVENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY TO THE SW OF THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC...GENERALLY TO THE N OF 02N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 04N90W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N90W AND EXTENDS WNW THROUGH 05N110W TO 03N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF 03N105W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N115W TO 05N130W... AND ALSO S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N115W TO 01N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE W SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N133W TO 05.5N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG POSITION FROM 32N117W TO 30N121W...WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE FRONT AT 31N132W AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENE TO NEAR 32N124W ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06-15N W OF 132W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10-13 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 10N123W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRIEFLY THIS EVENING WITH FRESH NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 122W TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AGAIN EARLY SAT WITH STRONG NE TRADES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 06-18N W OF 132W ON SAT NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALONG 122W ON SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E MERGING WITH NE SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ON SUN AND REACH THE EQUATOR W OF 100W ON SUN NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUBSIDES THIS NW SWELL QUICKER THAT PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND NOW EXPECT SEAS OF 9-11 FT TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. HOWEVER... EXPECT COMBINED SEAS OF 5-7 FT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY SUN THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N140W ON SAT EVENING. GUIDANCE LOSES TRACK OF THIS FRONT BY SUN...BUT INDICATES ANOTHER BATCH OF ASSOCIATED 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON SAT...AND PROPAGATE E ARRIVING AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON MON EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE SURGES WILL SPREAD SW AND MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AS WELL AS NW SWELL PARTIALLY ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS TO AS FAR S AS 08N92W THIS WEEKEND. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH ON SAT. THESE FRESH NW WINDS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THEN DIMINISH FROM THE N ON MON. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS. $$ NELSON