000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU DEC 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...MINIMUM GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WITHIN A NARROW SWATH SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH STRONG GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX WITH STRONG GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MON NIGHT. WAVE GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 25 FT NEAR 14.5N95W DURING THE STORM EVENTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NW COLOMBIA WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC...GENERALLY TO THE N OF 02N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N80W TO 03N92W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N92W AND CONTINUES WNW TO 06N113W...THEN TURNS WSW TO 03N133W...THEN NW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF 06N102W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N134W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N130W AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG POSITION FROM 32N126W TO 26N140W...CONTINUES E ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS ALREADY DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO THE S OF 32N. REMNANTS OF THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY THE SLIGHEST W TO NW WIND SHIFT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS NOTED ABOUT 150 NM BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS OR MARINE GRAPHICS FOR SIMPLICITY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE ASSOCIATED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH HAS BUILT COMBINED SEAS TO 18 FT ALONG 32N BETWEEN 133-140W WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER CURRENTLY W OF A LINE FROM 32N127W TO 23N140W. EXPECT THE 12 FT SEA CONTOUR TO SHIFT E AND MERGE WITH TRADE WIND SEAS ACROSS THE TROPICS ON FRI...ALL TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 06N132W. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 12 FT SEAS WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 28N ON FRI NIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT. COMBINED SEAS OF AT LEAST 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS ARRIVING AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON MON. FURTHER S...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 07-17N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-12 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 92W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL EXPAND TO COVER THE WATERS FROM 06-19N W OF 130W ON FRI...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON FRI NIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN RELAX SOME ON FRI AFTERNOON... THEN RESUME AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE SURGES WILL SPREAD SW AND MERGE WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...AS WELL AS NW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN LARGE SEAS TO AS FAR S AS 08N93W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON SAT MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE N BEGINNING LATE SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 7 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS. $$ NELSON