000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY FRI AS THICKNESSES LOWER OVER THE AREA. THE COOL AIR OVER THE 29-30 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER SHOULD PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER BETWEEN 40-50 KT FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SAT MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS TO 12 FT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 17-19 FT EARLY FRI AND 20-22 FT EARLY SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W 1009 MB TO 02N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N130W TO 30N132W TO 26N140W. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NEAR THE FRONT N OF 29N...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 16-18 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER IN NW SWELL AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 11-13 FT AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1025 MB NEAR HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N155W AND THE ITCZ IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N- 17N W OF 135W. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG 30N INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRI. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE BY SAT MORNING AT THE HIGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN OF THE UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL WEAKEN TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING STORM CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SAT. A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT. $$ SCHAUER