000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU DEC 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY SURGES CURRENTLY AT
30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE EARLY
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN. THE NARROW SWATH OF MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS.
THEN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX SOME WITH STRONG GALE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE ON TUE. WAVE
GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 22 FT FRI THROUGH SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N88W TO 05N92W.
THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 05N92W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N118W TO
06N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N E OF
91W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W AND FROM 04N TO 10N
W OF 130W.
   
...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N138W TO 29N140W WITH A
DISSIPATING 1023 MB HIGH AHEAD OF IT NEAR 33N123W. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WNW 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED W OF THE
FRONT. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA LATE FRI...WITH ASSOCIATED
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS S OF
32N ON TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-
FRONTAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SEAS HEIGHTS
UP TO 16 FT W OF 136W THIS MORNING. THESE SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO
ABOUT 14 FT AS THEY REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE FRI NIGHT. 

FURTHER S...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10-13N W
OF 135W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10-11 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE MIXING WITH FRESH
TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 100W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12
FT. THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NW-N 20-25
KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

$$
NR