000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC WED DEC 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE
WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH CHIVELA
PASS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE SUNRISE THU MORNING AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH
AS 40-45 KT MIDDAY THU THROUGH FRI MORNING AS THICKNESSES LOWER
OVER THE AREA. THE COOL AIR OVER THE 29-30 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER
SHOULD PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 12 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
REACH AS HIGH AS 17-19 FT EARLY FRI. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 05N93W. THE
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N93W TO 07N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR
06N105W 1007 MB TO 04N123W TO 07N133W...THEN CONTINUES FROM
07N137W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN
150 NM AND 300 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
ELSEWHERE N OF THE AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 114W-129W AS WELL AS S
OF THE AXIS TO 02N BETWEEN 114W-120W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR 32N125W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N133W TO 05N135W IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 11N-
17N W OF 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 06N-09N AND
WITHIN 270 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N-09N. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS W TO 140W
THROUGH THU. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SHIFT W
WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH THU THEN EXPAND E AGAIN AS THE 1007 MB
LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 06N105W MOVES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TODAY...BUT NEW
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. 20-30 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF
29N BY THU MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM
32N130W TO 26N140W. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 16-18 FT IN THE
FAR NW CORNER IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL THU MORNING. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
GREAT BASIN OF THE UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL WEAKEN THU. N-NW
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN 0135 UTC ALTIKA PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 8.5 FT
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 25N109W. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE GULF PRIMARILY S OF 28N THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT AND 8
FT...RESPECTIVELY...AFTER SUNRISE THU MORNING. 
 
$$
SCHAUER