000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED DEC 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY SURGES AT 20-25 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WED...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT IN
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...FURTHER INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
EARLY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THU WITH 35-40 KT CONDITIONS AS
FAR AS 130 NM SSW OF TEHUANTEPEC THU EVENING. THESE STRONG GALE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.    
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N93W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N120W TO 06N133W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N E OF 86W AND FROM 02N TO
10N BETWEEN 113W AND 129W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N125W AND IS SHIFTING NE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF STRONG NE TRADE WINDS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
TROPICS FROM 9N TO 18N W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 13
FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
ARE MIXING WITH FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO EQUATOR AT 85W RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX WITH THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES SHIFTING TO THE W OF
133W ON THU. 

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION 
WATERS BY SUNRISE WED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT
30N143W ON WED AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA ON
FRI IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POST-FRONTAL LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SEAS HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT N OF 29N ON THU.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO
23N140W ON FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NW-N 20-30 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN 20-25
KT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG
FETCH OPEN AREAS BETWEEN 25N TO 27N.
 
$$
NR