000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE DEC 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO
05N110W TO 08N125W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N127W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 112W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMBINED WITH TROUGHING
OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORT STRONG N-
NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 29N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
SEAS HAVING BUILT AS HIGH AS 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THU MORNING. 
                                       
A RIDGE PREVAILS OVER N WATERS N OF 13N W OF 114W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND OLD FRONTAL ZONES IS MAINTAINING
AN ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W
OF 120W WHERE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT PREVAIL IN MIXED NE
AND NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WSW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LARGE NW SWELL
WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT LATE WED
AND THU. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWEEP JUST NORTH OF 30N
AND THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS... 

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IS COMBINING WITH
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO SUPPORT FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND A PERSISTENT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NE
TROPICAL PACIFIC. N-NE WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 20-25 KT N OF 14.5N WITH SEAS TO 8
FT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
FURTHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO WED THROUGH THU IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE GALE
CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GALES TO 45
KT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE
WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. 

GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL
ZONES OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED GAP WIND
AREAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE A LAST PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS
TUE MORNING...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. GAP WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO SMALLER MORE LOCALIZED AREAS AND PEAK AT 15-20 KT
DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
 
$$
NR