000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010323 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE DEC 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N104WTO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 06N128W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF ITCZ W OF 109W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMBINED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SIERRA MADRES SUPPORTS STRONG N-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS HAVING BUILT AS HIGH AS 10 FT S OF 26.5N. MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWED MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N WITH SOLID 25 KT WINDS...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING STEADILY ON THURSDAY AND REACHING 10- 15 KT BY THU NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DEPICTED AS A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRES N AND S OF 30N...EXTENDS FROM 31N126W TO 29N140W. WINDS ARE VERY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF THE DISRUPTED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER N WATERS N OF 18N W OF 108W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED OUT ENE TO WSW BETWEEN 115W AND 135W IS MAINTAINING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS S OF 20N TO A LINE FROM 17N118W TO 09N130W TO 08.5N140W WHERE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT PREVAIL IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT WSW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LARGE NW SWELL WITH FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT LATE WED AND THU. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWEEP JUST NORTH OF 30N AND THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. GAP WINDS... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IS COMBINING WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND A PERSISTENT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC. GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAMOF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS THERE CURRENTLY 20-25 KT N OF 14.5N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FRESH N WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING FURTHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WED THROUGH THU IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GALES TO 45 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL ZONES OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED GAP WIND AREAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE A LAST PULSE OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...WHILE THE PAPAGAYO REGION REACHES 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT. GAP WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO SMALLER MORE LOCALIZED AREAS AND PEAK AT 15-20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. $$ STRIPLING