000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON NOV 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING A GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE NE TROPICAL PACIFIC. GALE
FORCE N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AT 0430 UTC INDICATING WINDS TO 40 KT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE LATER TODAY...THEN PERSIST
AT 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. MAX SEAS TO 12-13 FT THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT TUE AS WIND FORCING DECREASES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 06N130W TO 05N136W. POCKETS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 11N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMBINED WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SIERRA MADRE SUPPORT STRONG WINDS
OF 20-25 KT IN MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY REACH
30 KT THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF...WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED.
                                       
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DEPICTED AS A STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRES N AND S OF 30N...EXTENDS FROM 31N130W TO
28N144W. WINDS ARE VERY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF THE
DISRUPTED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER N
WATERS N OF 18N W OF 114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ ALONG 05N-06N IS MAINTAINING AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS
FROM 09N-22N W OF 115W...WITH MAX SEAS TO 11-12 FT W OF 125W.
THIS AREA OF FRESH NE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WSW AS RIDGING
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED
WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND LARGE NW
SWELL AND FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT
LATE WED AND THU.

GAP WINDS... 

PULSES OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE IN GAP
WIND PRONE AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA MAINLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH MORNING...AND 6-7 FT NEAR THE
GULFS OF FONSECA AND PANAMA. CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WED AND THU. 
 
$$
MUNDELL