000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS COMBINING WITH A SHARP AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS PROMOTING FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS ALIGNMENT AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS SEVERAL GAP PRONE AREAS OF PACIFIC CENTRAL AMERICA...AND 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N96W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NUDGED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...AND WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY GALES DEVELOPING TONIGHT BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600 UTC ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HOURS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THERE MAY PEAK NEAR 40 KT ON LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH MAXIMUM SEAS BUILDING 13-15 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME VERY WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 08N120W TO 06N133W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W TO 132W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 22.5N 108W...MOVING NE AT 6 KT. A CLUSTER OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF SANDRA REMAIN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED NE TO SW. SEAS REMAIN ROUGH AND CONFUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 24.5N...AT 8 TO 10 FT. THE REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL SINALOA ON SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOOK FOR MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL IMMEDIATELY BE REPLACED BY N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPILLING DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM LOW PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 33.5N126W TO 30N126W TO 29N140W. WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT NW OF THE HIGH. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 134W AND FROM 17N TO 20N W OF 134W...WHICH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY SANDRA...NW SWELL SWEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS AREA OF STRONG NE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SUN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW FORECAST WATERS MONDAY MORNING WITH NW SWELL W OF THE BOUNDARY RAISING SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. THREE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W AND ARE SHIFTING SLOWLY W...AND PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE... STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SINKING MOTION PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN N PACIFIC. GAP WINDS... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...GULF OF MEXICO...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS SET UP TO PRODUCE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GAP WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH MORNING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY PEAKING NEAR 30 KT SUN AND MON MORNINGS. MEANWHILE LOOK FOR THE GULF OF FONSECA TO BLOW TO AROUND 20 KT EACH OF THE NEXT NIGHT AND MORNINGS...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND PRODUCE N WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. $$ STRIPLING