000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260938 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE SANDRA WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 110.3W AT 0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 435 NM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 500 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SANDRA IS MOVING N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT...MAKING SANDRA A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRI. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM NE QUADRANT. SANDRA COULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY OR FRI MORNING. SANDRA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FRI AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDRA AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THU THROUGH AND FRI AS SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM SANDRA BEGINS TO MERGE WITH LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE 0352 ASCAT-B PASS MISSED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT IT DID SHOW 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST JUST E OF THIS AREA. CONSIDERING THE PASS DID NOT OCCUR AT THE PEAK OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND MISSED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS...THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 0619 UTC CRYOSAT PASS SHOWED 9.5 FT SEAS S OF THE AREA OF EXPECTED MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN PLACE. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 KT EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 07N93W TO 09N103W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N114W TO 04N123W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N123W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER NE ARIZONA ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N113W TO 26N120W TO 25N130W TO 33N140W. THE 0538 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 127W-134W. A SECOND AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WAS OBSERVED S OF THE FRONT AND TO THE NW OF A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK. THIS TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 22N124W TO 17N127W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE REMNANTS OF RICK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED OUTRUN THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT TODAY. AN ALTIKA PASS FROM AROUND 0300 UTC SHOWED SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 30N130W. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD...WITH SEAS IN THE 7- 10 FT RANGE EXPECTED TO BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W BY EARLY SAT MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSES OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. $$ SCHAUER