000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ALLOWING COOL..DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO STORM FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0315 UTC SHOWED 40-45 KT N WINDS...BUT THE PASSAGE OF THIS AIR MASS OVER THE 30 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER WILL PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING AND BRING THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION... NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 18-21 FT EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY EARLY WED MORNING. BROAD LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED S-SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N99W MOVING W-NW AROUND 5-10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...MERGING INTO A PLUME OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY EARLY WED MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W 1006 MB TO 08N105W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N118W TO 08N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N125W TO 08N130W TO 09N134W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 12N-15.5N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1007 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR 19N120W. THE 0458 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PERSISTS WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. THE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER 50 KT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW THE 20-25 KT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE N-NW. HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY TWO COLD FRONTS N OF THE AREA. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACCORDING TO THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. ONE OF THE COLD FRONTS IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR N WATERS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...WITH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER FAR NE WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE EXPECTED OVER WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 134W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING. A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AT NIGHT BEFORE REPEATING THE PATTERN BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING. 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. $$ SCHAUER