000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220344 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RICK CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 117.0W AT 22/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 534 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS RICK AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH SUN...THEN WEAKENS IT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUN EVENING. RICK IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MON MORNING...DISSIPATING BY WED EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BLASTING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BEHIND IT RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST 10-M 45 KT WINDS BY SUN EVENING AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH 30-M WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 60 KT AND 925 MB WINDS 65 KT. THUS A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING BY 00 UTC MON THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING. AS A RESULT...LARGE SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT. WEAK AND BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NE PACIFIC CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N93W. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS LOW HAS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W... FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER NW MEXICO WITH RECENT VALUABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALREADY SHOWING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF N OF 30N W OF 113.5W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WHILE A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY EVEN INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT AS A RESULT OF THE WINDS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MON MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE MON MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TO NEAR 21N123W. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS AS THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGE HAVE WEAKENED. FRESH SWELLS GENERATED BY EARLIER STRONGER TRADES HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ LEWITSKY