000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201544 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RICK CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 110.3W AT 20/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 385 NM...715 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RAGGED BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH MAINLY MODERATE CONVECTION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...PARTICULARLY WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AND ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN RICK WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY MON MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE WARNING FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 30 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS LIKELY SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40-45 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 14-15 FT BEGINNING SUN EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N88W TO 09N95W TO 11N100W THEN RESUMES AT 12N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N117W 1008 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N130W 1007 MB TO 07N133W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N133W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W... FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 102W AND 104W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 134W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 25N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1012 MB LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 35N140W BY 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT MORNING...BUT COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N136W TO 10N130W BY THAT TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANGE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NW TO N WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF 28N AND 10 TO 15 KT N OF 28N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING TROUGH LATE SUN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL INCREASE WESTWARD REACHING 91-92W BY EARLY MON MORNING. $$ GR