000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190237 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 106.1W AT 19/0300 UTC OR 365 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING N AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST /ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU. A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ERRATIC MOTION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...THEN IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE NW BY 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN W-NW THEREAFTER. GALE WARNING FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING THU MORNING AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N84W TO 12N102W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N127W TO 07N134W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N134W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM SE OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N136W AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SPILLING OUT THE MOUTH OF THE GULF TO 21N W OF 108.5W. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO FILTERING THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR PASSES INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS EARLIER TODAY AS INDICATED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES INDICATED 7 TO 10 FT SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE IN PART TO NW SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THU AS THE LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO LIFTS NE ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THU NIGHT. W OF 120W...SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 36N136W AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. VARIOUS ALTIMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT IN THE AREA OF THE STRONG TRADE WINDS... HELPED IN PART PRIMARILY BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS PRODUCING AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER...ROUGHLY N OF 05N. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE EASTERN 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 11N117W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 10N127W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. NO DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER LOW IS ANTICIPATED. $$ LEWITSKY