000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161614 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 1200 THROUGH 1800 UTC TODAY FOR THE GULF WATERS N OF 29.5N. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG AND DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND UNUSUALLY HIGH SEAS. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH N PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG W TO NW WINDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT SPILLING INTO N PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. NORTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING THROUGH GAPS IN THE TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND SPILLING ACROSS THE GULF IN NARROW PLUMES...OCCASIONALLY REACHING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN VEER MORE NW TO N TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BLASTING 20-25 KT WIND DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF AND TO LAS ISLAS TRES MARIAS AND CABO CORRIENTES BY TUE AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N75W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 14.5N125W TO 09N140W. ISOLATED TOSCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN120 NM N AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 107W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 270 NM S OFTROUGH W OF 107W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 30N111.5W...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24.5N120W TO 22.5N140W. A VERY LONG FETCH OF STRONG N-NW WINDS EXTENDS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TO 30N THIS MORNING...AND IS GENERATING EXTREMELY HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...WITH PEAK SEAS 15-20 FT OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS...AND SEAS 8-14 FT IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO CREATE LARGE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE NE WATERS AND PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY...N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE FRONT...WHILE NE TO E WINDS 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN MERGING NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES N OF LINE FROM 17N113W TO 14N116.5W TO 09N136W TO 05N140W...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS 12-15 FT FROM 12N TO 17N W OF 122W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE S OF 20N BY WED BEFORE BECOMING ILL DEFINED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS ZONE UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8-9 FT IS EXPECTED S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TUE NIGHT AND WED...IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION AT 0400 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 30 KT...AND WAS LIKELY THE PEAK OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. N TO NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. $$ STRIPLING