000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30-35 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO 15-20 KT LATER ON MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14.5N125W 1006 MB TO 08N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 06N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 26N130W TO 27N140W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 12 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 26N112W TO 21N125W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING WHILE WEAKENING. STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 35N WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BY MON. THESE 20-30 KT NELY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. HIGHEST SEAS TO 14-17 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 26N E OF 123W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MON EVENING. A LOW PRES AREA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14.5N125W AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...COVERING THE WATERS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W BY TUE EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRES FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE N WATERS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N TONIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND ALSO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BE INDUCED BY A 1033 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF REACHING 20 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. $$ GR