000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                     
2205 UTC SUN NOV 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 30-35 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20-25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO 15-20 KT LATER ON MON AS
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 10N TO 15N MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 14N125W 1005 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N140W 1009 MB. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND N OF 03N E OF
83W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 93W...FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND
115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN
120W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N123W TO 28N140W. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 26N112W TO 22N125W TO 23N140W
BY MON AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE
FRONT NEAR 35N WILL PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AND UNUSUAL AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW BY MON. THESE 20-30 KT
NELY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. HIGHEST SEAS TO 14-16 FT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
MON EVENING. 

LOW PRES AREAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N125W
AND 08N140W ARE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 14N125W IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE.

GAP WINDS...                                                

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE
N WATERS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ENHANCE NE WINDS
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS OCCASIONALLY PEAKING TO NEAR 25 KT
BUT MAX SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE.

$$
GR