000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MON MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS IN THE 13-15 FT
RANGE. RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO THAT IS DRIVING THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CHIVELA PASS WILL WEAKEN SUN AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT
FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MON
MORNING...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
WINDS EARLY MON. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 06N-15N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 420 NM E OF
WAVE FROM 06N-13N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N-13N.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N92W TO 10N100W
TO 11N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR
07N140W 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE COAST ACROSS THE AREA N OF 03.5N E OF 82.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N-16N W OF 119W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
32N120W TO 27N130W TO 27N140W SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TROPICS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH DEVELOPING MON...ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. THE 1006 MB
LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N124W WILL DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30
KT IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE N SUN NIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-13 FT IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
N OF 28N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 130W WHERE SEAS OF 12-16 FT
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                               
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CHARGE 
THROUGH N WATERS SUN AND MON WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. W-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA N OF 29N SUN AFTERNOON AND BECOME NEAR GALE FORCE BY
EVENING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. WINDS AT OR ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN N OF 29N THROUGH MON MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL DRIVE E-NE WINDS
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW AND REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SUN AND MON
MORNINGS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 88W.

$$
SCHAUER