000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT NOV 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUN EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS TO 40 KT EXPECTED NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
MAX SEAS WILL BE 13-15 FT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...
BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY MON EVENING. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 10N-14N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 98W-100W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 11N93W TO 11N132W TO
07N140W. WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN TROUGH NEAR 10.5N124W
HAS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM
OF A LINE FROM 05N127W TO 14N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHERN WATERS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N123W
TO 28N130W TO 27N140W SUN MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS...AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N127W TO
20N140W MON EVENING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UNUSUALLY LARGE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
DEVELOPING MON...TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W. THIS MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH WINDS
WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE 12-16 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS N OF 20N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ENHANCE TRADE WINDS
TO PRODUCE SECOND LARGE AREA OF 12-13 FT SEAS S OF 20N W OF 125W.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES NW MEXICO. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS SUN NIGHT SHIFTING NW AND STRENGTHENING
MON MORNING THROUGH TUE. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS LIKELY...
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BEYOND 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL