000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE GALE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. THEN...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON. THIS
GAP WIND EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
REACHING VERACRUZ. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT AT THAT TIME WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 FT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W N OF 09N. THIS WAVE IS
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 08N TO 14N MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N93W TO 08N105W TO
11N115W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N124W TO ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO
13N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND
110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 118W
AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 34N145W IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN WATERS
LATE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS
N OF 15N W OF 115W AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 10N W OF 120W-125W
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WATERS SUN MORNING...AND USHER IN A
FRESH SET OF LARGE NW SWELL TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W...WHERE NE WIND WAVES FROM TRADE
WINDS WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 9-12 FT
COMBINED SEAS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY S OF 28N. SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THIS AREA.   

$$
GR