000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI NOV 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE FIRST SIGN WAS AN
ASCAT PASS AT 13/0400 UTC THAT SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH
OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE MORE DURING THE REST OF TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN ORDER TO MIX DOWN
ACROSS VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY TO ABOUT 12 FEET THIS MORNING. THE
COLD DENSE AIR WILL BE REINFORCED MORE LATE TONIGHT...AND
INCREASE NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS TO 40 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 TO 16 FEET. MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. N OF 10N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
FROM 10N TO14N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N92W TO 08N96W TO 11N113W TO LOW
PRES 1007 MB NEAR 08N123W TO 09N133W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR
07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND
133W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 80W...FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND
128W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA... A 1030
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N147W. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.

A MODERATELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM 115W WESTWARD. SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN
SHOWING CONSISTENTLY A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM
10N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 120W-125W DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND USHER
IN A FRESH SET OF LARGE NW SWELL IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SEA HEIGHTS IN MOST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE TO THE WEST OF 115W...WHERE NE WIND WAVES FROM TRADE WINDS
AT 6 TO 7 FEET WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL FROM 8 TO 9 FEET IN
ORDER TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 9 TO 12 FOOT COMBINED SEAS.
 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LATEST HI-RES ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS AT 13/0500 UTC SHOWED 20 KNOT WINDS IN MOST OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT FEW IF ANY AT 25 KNOTS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET
LATER TODAY. 

$$
MT