000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU NOV 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDS THAT
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT.
EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 12-14 FT BY FRI MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS GAP WIND EVENT. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO FURTHER INCREASE EARLY SAT.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30-40 KT N WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 09N-16N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W FROM 09N-17N IS MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N105W TO 07N123W.
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
04N-13N BETWEEN 112W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N145W WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N120W. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS N OF 11N W OF 128W BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.
ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS TO 11-12 FT FROM THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 10N AND W OF
115W. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

GAP WINDS...
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
IS SUPPORTING A FETCH OF STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. A RECENT HI-RES
RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-30 KT NW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF
AND SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS EXTENDING S OF THE GULF FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 106W-109W. IN ADDITION...GAP WINDS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH 20-25 KT NE WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.
A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TODAY...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4-6 FT FRI. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 06-12
UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS MAY START UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL