000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE NOV 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR
08N109W 1009 MB TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N119W 1009 MB TO
07N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N128W TO 07N135W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N102W TO 06N109W...AND ALSO N OF TROUGH
WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 12.5N107W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-93W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-137W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PRESENT N OF 09N E OF 
119W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS NW OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 26N118W WHERE IT 
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 23N130W AND TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE TO 
23N136W TO 22N140W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM FROM 13N TO 
21N W OF 132W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 
10N AND W OF 120W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER THIS 
AREA...A COMBINATION OF NW SWELL WITH NE WIND WAVES. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION ON WED. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WED AFTERNOON TO 25 KT.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF CONTINUE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING.
 
$$
AGUIRRE