000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON NOV 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A   
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SURGING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING N-NE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 
TO 12-13 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF REGION NEAR 15N95W. EXPECT 
WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE ON MONDAY LATE MORNING AND 
THEN PULSE TO 30 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW WILL RESUME ON 
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N104W TO 17N103W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING NOTED ON 
GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN 101W AND 108W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB 
RELATIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS IN 
THE VICINITY OF 09N103W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED 
IN THE VICINITY OF WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 09N90W TO 
10N107W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 08N114W TO 04N118W TO 05N121W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N121W TO 
10N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
12N BETWEEN 81W AND 99W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 
121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N126W TO 27N140W WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT NOTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY 
LOSE IDENTITY W OF 126W ON MONDAY AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE S OF 
30N BY TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONTINUING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT WILL 
MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS FROM 24N TO 28N W OF 136W THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE 
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 13N W OF 125W THROUGH MID WEEK 
SUPPORTING NE 20-25 KT FLOW AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 
5-10 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN 
END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD S 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. ON TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THESE NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT 
WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH N WINDS AT 20-25 KT 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY THEN DIMINISHING 
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.
 
$$
HUFFMAN