000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A   
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT. EXPECT THESE N-
NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 
FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 15N95W. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE 
BELOW GALE FORCE ON MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PULSE TO 30 KT 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS 
NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N101W TO 17N101W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING NOTED ON 
GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN 98W AND 105W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 
RELATIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS IN 
THE VICINITY OF 09N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N83W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 09N89W TO 
10N102W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 08N115W TO 07N120W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 
06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
12N BETWEEN 85W AND 102W...AND FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N128W TO 27N140W WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT NOTED W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY 
LOSE IDENTITY W OF 125W ON MONDAY AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE S OF 
30N BY TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONTINUING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT WILL 
MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NORTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 23N W OF 133W THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 14N W OF 127W THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORTING N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW 
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR 
THE UPCOMING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N. THE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD 
OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN 
GULF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS 
WILL SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC. ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THESE NORTHERLIES ARE 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH 
N WINDS AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY 
THEN DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.
 
$$
HUFFMAN