000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN NOV 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A   
COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO SURGE THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT. EXPECT THESE N-NE WINDS 
TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF NEAR 15N95W. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE 
ON MON MORNING AND THEN PULSE TO 30 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. 
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. 
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS NORTHERLY 20-30 KT FLOW WILL RESUME ON 
THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.     
  
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH PANAMA WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N100W TO 18N100W WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT 13.5N125W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 17N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW AND THE 
TROUGH. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM 08N134W TO 13N130W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 12N131W.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AT  
08N77W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09N90W...THEN 
CONTINUES W TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 08N115W 
THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH 08N115W TO 07N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN WIGGLES 
BETWEEN 05-07N TO BEYOND 140W.   

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE 
E OF 97W WITHIN 270 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 09N90W AND EITHER 
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N109W AND OVER AND THE N OF THE 
LOW AT 08N15W ALL WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N112W TO 13N119W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
04N115W TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION FROM 32N129W TO 
28N140W WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS 7-11 FT OBSERVED 
W OF THE  FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY W OF 130W 
ON MON AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE S OF 30N BY TUE...EXCEPT 
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GRADIENT W OF THE 
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF NE-20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 22N W OF 135W THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 10N W OF 110W THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORTING N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW 
AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 10-15 KT WINDS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT BY SUNSET...EXCEPT BECOMING 
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N. THESE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ON MON NIGHT AHEAD OF 
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN 
GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL 
SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE FRONT EARLY TUE AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EPAC...THEN CLOCK TO N AT 
15-20 KT ON TUE NIGHT AND SPREAD S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ON WED WITH N 
WINDS AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON WED AND THU THEN 
DIMINISHING SOME ON FRI.
 
$$
NELSON