000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT NOV 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL START 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N100W TO 09N1190W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N120W TO 07N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
85W AND 92W AND BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N130W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 
20N W OF 125W WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DECREASING THE AREAL 
COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE 
WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE 
INTO THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE 
FOUND W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A FRESH SET 
OF NW SWELLS INTO THE NW WATERS.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SAT 
NIGHT. 

$$ 
AL