000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT NOV 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG 
HIGH PRES AND RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INDUCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SAT NIGHT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING GALE CONDITIONS BY SUN 
NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 10N97W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N107W TO 06N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 09N125W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N E OF 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE WEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO COAST TO 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N106W. JUST N OF THE ELONGATED 
TROUGH BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE 
GRADIENT...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA N OF 22N. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 
THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES SE AND THE 
PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY 
SAT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 112W. A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY 
1009 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 07N107W WITH 15 TO 20 KT S TO 
SW WINDS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...PRODUCING SEAS 
TO 8 FT...HOWEVER SUBSIDING EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS 
DIMINISH AND THE SWELL DECAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 34N130W. A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE 
RIDGING AND N OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 
12N TO 21N W OF 115W WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHT FROM 8 TO 10 FT. 
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

$$ 
NR