000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N93W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N107W TO 06N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 09N125W 
AND CONTINUES TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 270 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 104W...AND FROM 02N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN ARIZONA...ALONG THE WEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO COAST TO 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N107W...WHILE SHARP SURFACE 
RIDGING IS NOISING DOWN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...WITH ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH 30N117W TO 21N112W. THIS 
VERY TIGHT PRES PATTERN IS IN PART SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N. THESE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH SAT DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT BY EARLY SAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG 
HIGH PRES AND ATTENDANT RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. 
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INDUCED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS BY SUN NIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY...THEN 
DIMINISHING BY MID WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 270 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 104W. WEST OF THE CONVECTION...A 
WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 07N107W WITH S TO SW 
WINDS OF 15 KT FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W...PRODUCING 
SEAS TO 8 FT...HOWEVER SUBSIDING EARLY SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH 
AND THE SWELL DECAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 34N130W. A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS SW OF THE 
RIDGING AND N OF THE ITCZ WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES FROM 12N TO 21N W OF 114W WITH COMBINED SEAS 
HEIGHT FROM 8 TO 10 FT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DIMINISH 
IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA WEAKENS.

$$ 
NR