000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N94W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N105W 1009 MB TO 06N109W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 
07N124W AND CONTINUES TO 07N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 109W AND FROM 04N 
TO 11N W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 25N121W CONTINUES 
TO INDUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND MODERATE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING MIDDLE TROUGH DIGS INTO 
THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF 
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO 
EAST SAT..BRINGING ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 FT 
PERSISTS IN THE WATERS APPROXIMATELY 270 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AS IT 
PROPAGATES SW REACHING THE AREA WEST OF CLARION ISLAND 
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE BY LATE MON.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE BELOW 20 KT AS LOW 
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN 
APPROACHES THE REGION AND RIDGING ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
MEXICO WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT...INCLUDING ALONG MEXICO. THIS WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...THUS 
INDUCING GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING EARLY 
SUN...REACHING NEAR TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG GAP FLOW 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA 
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N105W ENHANCES 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 170 NM OF THE LOW. ENHANCED 15 KT SW 
WINDS SE OF THIS LOW ARE INTERACTING WITH NW SWELL ACROSS THE 
REGION...THUS CREATING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT FROM 03N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. THE LOW WILL DRIFT WEST ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. 
SUBSEQUENTLY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE 
REGION...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE NW CORNER 
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE 
FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 113W WITH ACCOMPANYING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 
FT...HIGHEST W OF 136W. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT 
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY LATE SAT. 
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND REACH FROM 32N134W TO 30N140W 
THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG NE WINDS WILL 
FOLLOW THE FRONT BY LATE SUN. NW SWELL WILL ENVELOP THE REGION N 
OF 25N AND ALSO THE WATERS W OF 125W THROUGH LATE MON.

$$
NR