000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU NOV 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 14N93W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N104W 1009 MB TO 04N110W. IT RESUMES AT LOW 
PRES NEAR 14N110W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W 1011 MB TO 
14N118W TO 14N120W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N120W TO 08N130W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE TO 24N130W. THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL 
MOVE NW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER 
WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE 
WASHINGTON/OREGON AREA. THE NET EFFECT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE 
CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...INCREASING 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS THE 
REINFORCING MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL 
SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SAT..BRINGING ANOTHER 
PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
ELSEWHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER PERSIST IN THE 
WATERS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH REACHING THE 
AREA WEST OF CLARION ISLAND BY TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 8 
FT THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...RESIDUAL 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS ARE ABATING 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...LEFTOVER FROM OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY A 
RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST 
CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN STALLS 
AND DISSIPATES. LOOKING AHEAD...COLD DRY AIR FOLLOWING A FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT AND SUN WILL PUSH 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SUN WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR 
GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT. THE STRONG GAP FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A PERSISTENT BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS 
CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N104W. A FEW SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AROUND 180 NM N OF THE LOW PRES BUT 
ARE DIMINISHING. THE LOW HAS BEEN BENEFITING BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF 
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY 
AIR INTO THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE LOW PRES...INHIBITING 
CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ENHANCED 15 TO 20 KT SW WINDS ON THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW ARE INTERACTING WITH THE SWELL CREATING 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT AS NOTED IN SEVERAL RECENT ALTIMETER 
SATELLITE PASSES. THE LOW WILL DRIFT WEST ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LOW WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE FRI 
WITH WINDS AND SEAS DISSIPATING THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH SLIGHTLY BY LATE SUN WITH 
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. 
 
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE 
REGION...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE NW CORNER 
OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED IN 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 16N TO 19N W OF 125W. ALTIMETER 
DATA SHOWS SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 125W AS WELL 
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT 
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE AND DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AS THE NW SWELL 
DECAYS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST AND REACH FROM 31N130W TO 
29N140W THROUGH LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG NE 
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BY LATE SUN. NW SWELL WILL ENVELOP 
THE REGION N OF 25N AND ALSO THE WATERS W OF 125W THROUGH LATE 
MON.

$$
CHRISTENSEN