000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED NOV 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N93W TO LOW 
PRES 1009 MB NEAR 08N98W TO 05N110W...WHERE IT IS DISCONTINUOUS 
AND RESUMES AT LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 15N109W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB 
NEAR 13N116W TO 08N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
05N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W...FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 
106W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 114W AND FROM 12N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH BASE 
EXTENDING SW TO FORECAST WATERS NEAR 20N140W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING 
FROM NORTHERN SINALOA MEXICO TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR 24N111W 
TO 18N123W TO 19N140W. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW 
FOLLOWS THE FRONT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFTS NE 
THROUGH THU ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE. SEAS 
ARE 6 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST. 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. 
LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL BE ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS 
WILL REACH UP TO 6 FT WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG N-NE GAPS WINDS THAT OCCURRED 
YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A QUICK 
SURGE OF N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 20 KT OR LESS THU MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH 
UP TO 8 FT N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W DURING THAT 
PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED 
STARTING EARLY SUN.
 
WEAK LOW PRES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W 
AND 107W THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT 15 KT SW FLOW INTO 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 
290 NM S AND SE OF THE LOW PRES WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF SW 
SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD...SEAS WILL DIMINISH 
TO 5 TO 7 FT W OF 100W AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND THE LOW WEAKENS.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 15N AND 22N W OF 130W 
THROUGH LATE THU.

$$
NR