000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N87W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08N99W TO 06N108W...RESUMING NEAR 15N106W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 14N109W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 12N117W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N130W AND CONTINUES TO A LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 96W...FROM 2.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W AND FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 133W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SW TO 20N BETWEEN 112W-137W WITH AXIS THROUGH 32N119W TO 25N126W TO 19N128W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR NW MEXICO SW TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N122W TO NEAR 21N140W. SW TO W WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT WHICH TIME THEY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER S BAJA CALIFORNIA THU BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT...BUT DECAYING TO AROUND 8 FT THROUGH EARLY THU. A SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "C6RN3" REPORTED W WINDS OF 30 KT JUST W OF THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 09Z WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 13 FT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NW OF THE AREA SUPPORTS NE-E FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 9-11 FT RANGE. ANOTHER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A TROUGH ALONG 140W S OF 12N. THE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN THESE WINDS THROUGH LATE THU AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA FROM ABOUT 12N- 14N W OF 128W WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY THERE TO 10 FT. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT FRI WITH SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN A N SWELL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM FROM 26N112W TO 20N120W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 19N140W BY LATE THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATES FRI. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND TROUGHING ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG N-NE GAPS WINDS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A QUICK SURGE OF N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON. LINGERING SECONDARY WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 FT FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 95W-97W THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE NOT SO DISTINCT FUTURE...A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM EARLY SAT THROUGH SUN. $$ AGUIRRE