000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE NOV 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N83W TO 08N99W TO 
14N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N119W 1008 MB TO 10N125W TO 12N134W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 92W-101W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W-111W...BETWEEN 116W-120W...AND BETWEEN 135W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDS FROM 31N120W TO 
26N132W TO 26N140W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N115W. PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTS 
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS 
ARE 9 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP S-SE THE NEW 
FEW DAYS...REACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THU MORNING... 
WHILE W PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS THROUGH 
WED...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL 
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THU AND FRI TO ALLOW 
WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT SW PART WHERE 
E-NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN 
ACTIVE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INDUCE 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
N OF 30N TUE EVENING.

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL SEPARATE FROM THE 
FRONT PREVAILS FROM 11N TO 26N W OF 135W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MERGING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS.   

STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
FORCES LOW LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
FLOW WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT BY 
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL