000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON NOV 2 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 15N101W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 14N112W TO LOW PRES 1011 
MB NEAR 11N120W TO 12N133W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
N AND 45 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS EXTENDS FROM 30N126W 
TO 27N140W. A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRIVING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SE THE NEW FEW 
DAYS...REACHING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 19N140W BY WED 
MORNING...AND NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS TO 17N140W BY THU MORNING... 
WHERE THE W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND 
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS THROUGH WED...PRODUCING 
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE 
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL 
AND OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WILL 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THU AND FRI AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH 
ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE E-NE TRADE WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE 20-25 KT AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACTIVE N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAILS FROM 
08.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 131W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS 
THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO THE 
THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS.   

STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W AS 
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES S 
ACROSS SE MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT BY TUE 
AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL