000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021006 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 10N98W. IT RESUMES AT 14N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N113W 1011 MB TO 13N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N121W 1012 MB TO 11.5N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N135W 1012 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 135W-140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-107W...BETWEEN 132W- 135W AND S OF TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N104W TO 12N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT FOR S OF A LINE FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO 15N120W TO 14N130W TO 11N140W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF AREA ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N134W TO 29N140W. A STRONG 1038 MB HIGH CENTER IS NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N152W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 32N141W TO 28N130W TO NEAR 24N121W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N122W TO 26N140W BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM NEAR 32N119W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W BY LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TUE...WITH RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH NW WINDS IN WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SHIP "WFLH" REPORTED NE 30 KT WINDS AT 06Z JUST NW OF THE AREA. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN LATE TUE EXCEPT W OF ABOUT 130W WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N140W KEEPING STRONG NE-E WINDS THERE THROUGH WED. OTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE FEATURES ARE ALSO ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE...ONE NEAR 14N113W 1011 MB AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 13N121W 1012 MB. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING N OF THESE LOWS IS WEAK ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PERSIST IN THEIR VICINITY. THE LOW NEAR 13N121W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME ILL-DEFINED LATE TUE. THE LOW NEAR 14N113W WILL DRIFTS ENE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN BE NUDGED TO THE WSW WED AS THE RIDGE TO ITS N EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 21N113W. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT COMBINED SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAILS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 126W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL FORECAST TO THE THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 14.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 95.5W BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 30 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT...THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND TO 15-20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT WITHIN THE AREA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 95W-98W. $$ AGUIRRE