000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN NOV 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N89W TO 14N96W TO 
14N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 
09N BETWEEN 80W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W 
OF 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 40N134W TO 
35N145W. HIGH PRES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COLLAPSE TONIGHT AND 
THE FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS EARLY MON AND REACH FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 27N140W BY MON EVENING...AND FROM PUNTA 
EUGENIA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY TUE EVENING. STRONG 
HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
WATERS THROUGH TUE WITH RESULTANT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 
LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND FRESH NW 
WINDS IN WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W TONIGHT...THEN A TIGHTER 
PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE 
TRADE WINDS AFTER MON. 

AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL PREVAILS W 
OF LINE FROM 30N124W TO 12N126W TO 07N140W. MODEL WAVE GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 15N BETWEEN 94W-96W  
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE TUE 
NIGHT...WITH WINDS PULSING TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 9-10 FT LATE 
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL