000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011626
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN NOV 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N72.5W TO 
11N89W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 1010 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 15N108W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 100W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 106W.   

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EN ENERGETIC MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS N MEXICO TO 
18.5N115W TO SMALL MIDDLE/UPPER LOW NEAR 14N132W. THE TROUGH 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TROPICS JUST N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF 
STRONG SINKING AIR WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM N OF THE UPPER TROUGH... 
WHILE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO THE IMMEDIATE S OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH AND ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE 
MIDDLE/UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER 
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN PLACE. A STRONGER 
DEEP LAYERED LOW AND TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE U.S. AND INTO N 
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE THROUGH THU. THIS UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE NEARLY MON THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
FULL LENGTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING.
 
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL 1024 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N136W...WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 19N108W. THE HIGH WILL COLLAPSE TODAY AS THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 
THE NW. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NW PORTIONS EARLY MON MORNING...AND 
REACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 27N140W BY MON EVENING...AND 
FROM JUST S OF PUNTA EUGENIA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY 
TUE EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS MON AND TUE WITH THE RESULTANT 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH 
TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH FRESH NWLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP NE 15-20 KT 
WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE THE TIGHTER 
PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES 
TRADE WINDS TONIGHT AND MON. 

AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL PREVAILS W 
OF LINE FROM 30N122W TO 10N128W TO 06N135W TO 06.5N140W. MODEL 
WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF TO 15N BETWEEN 94W-96W  
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE TUE 
NIGHT...WITH WINDS PULSING TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT LATE 
EACH NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING