000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010220
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN NOV 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N90W TO 14N95W TO 
14N111W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N125W 1010 MB TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
420 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
TROUGH W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N125W. TROUGH 
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TROPICS JUST N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS 
THE SAME GENERAL AREA ACROSS THE TROPICS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AND WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N135W WILL 
BREAK DOWN SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WATERS. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES 30N EARLY MON AND BE OVERTAKEN 
BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD 
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
AND LARGE NW SWELL IN WATERS W OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THROUGH MON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL KEEP NE 15-20 
KT WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W THROUGH SUN...BEFORE THE TIGHTER 
PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES 
TRADE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON. 

AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL COVERS MOST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 
AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY SHRINKING IN SIZE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...AND AGAIN THE NEXT NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL