000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N94W TO 14N93W TO 15N99W 
TO 12N107W TO 15N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W 1010 MB TO 
08N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N 
TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N AND 75 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS NW 
MEXICO AND BAJA PENINSULA TO 17N123W SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT FROM 30N108W TO SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N 
110W. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO CONTINUE N OF FRONT IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGHEST WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 29N 
BUILDING SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT 
AS THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT WEAKENS AND THE 
FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. ASCAT DATA EARLIER 
TODAY SHOWS LARGE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
TO NEAR 130W-135W NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY...WITH 
HIGHEST WINDS TO 22 KT EVIDENT FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 121W-125W. 

AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS MAINLY IN NW SWELL COVERS NW PART 
OF FORECAST AREA. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AREA OF SWELL SLOWLY 
SHRINKING IN SIZE TO AN AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W THIS WEEKEND. SW 
SWELL TO 7-8 FT PREVAILS OVER SE PART...WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT FROM 
06N-12N BETWEEN 100W-130W. EXPECT AREA OF MIXED SW AND NW SWELL 
TO PERSIST S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-120W THIS WEEKEND. 

NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N135W 
WILL BE SHUNTED ASIDE SUN NIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO 
NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 34N119W TO 30N140W EARLY 
MON...AND FROM 28N113W TO 24N130W TO 26N140W TUE MORNING. EXPECT 
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL FOR 
WATERS W OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...WITH SECONDARY WEAKER 
SURGE THE NEXT NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL