000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI OCT 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N84W. IT THEN 
RESUMES AT 13N109W TO 15N120W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W 
TO 07N135W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ARIZONA SW TO OVER 
FAR NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N123W 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N109W SW TO 
27N110W TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N111W. FRESH 
TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NW WINDS 30 KT IN 
THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 
FT...EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 8 FT AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH NW TO 
N WINDS ARE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 22N BETWEEN 
114W-127W. THIS AREA OF WINDS EXTENDS WELL N OF 32N TO ALONG THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL ENHANCED BY THIS N FLOW IS 
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 10-11 FT WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. 
FRESH NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 400 NM N OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BEING GENERATED BY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 13N125W AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N136W. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE FROM 10-11 FT. 
ELSEWHERE N OF 07N W OF 110W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 
FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BE N OF 
09N AND W OF 122W BY EARLY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG NW 
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN 
DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

ASCAT DATA SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EPAC WATERS W OF JALISCO 
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 22N107W TO 14N105W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING 
NE THROUGH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRIGGERS 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE AREA N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. NW AND S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 18N T0 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 
106W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO 
THE NE OVER INLAND MEXICO.

THE 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W IS FORECAST TO STAY 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN WEAKEN BY SUN AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT 
WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS MON BEHIND THE HIGH...THEN 
WEAKENS AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE TO WED.

$$
NR