000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 13N102W TO 11N112W TO 15N122W TO 08N135W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W-102W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W-116W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W-127W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N119W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE FROM 28N111W TO 25N113W TO 22N119W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 25 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 116W-123W ENHANCING LARGE BACKGROUND NW SWELL TO PRODUCE 11-13 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRI. EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS N OF 28N-29N WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT. WESTERN PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CENTERED NEAR 15N124W AND 12N128W. NEITHER LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...SIMPLY A FOCUS FOR CYCLONIC VORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SAT. GFS MODEL SHOWS W-SW WINDS SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 8-10 FT FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN 100W-120W BY SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE...1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N138W WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TO AROUND 32N135W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA TUE. $$ MUNDELL