000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282217 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED OCT 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N89W TO 15N105W TO 16N119W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 16.5N123W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 13.5N128.5W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 103.5W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 130W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT SE AND ACROSS THE NE WATERS TODAY...FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N144W THROUGH 31N129W TO 20N109W. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THIS AREA. A STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 13 FT NEAR AND WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...7 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SPILL ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI...WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON FROM CABO SA LAZARO TO ABOUT 21N120W..WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THEN BEGINNING TO RECEDE N OF 27N. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR A BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 105W...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORCE CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTS FROM ACAPULCO TO NEAR MANZANILLO AND EXTENDS WELL INLAND. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND DISCONNECTS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SAT AS THE NW SWELL DECAYS AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. S OF 15N E OF 120W...SEVERAL WEAK AND SPORADIC PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...PERSISTENT SW SWELL IN THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. THE CONVERGING SW FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 115W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOW PRES AREA BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR 14N113W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE LOW PRES CENTER. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS MOVING SW AND CENTERED NEAR 25.5N136W. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND CROSS W OF 140W TONIGHT. LOCALIZED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING TROUGH THE AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 16 FT TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRES. THE NW SWELL WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 125W THROUGH LATE THU...AND WILL HAVE MERGED BY THEN WITH SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH...A SERIES OF LOW CENTERS ALONG THE MONSOON ARE PRODUCING FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF THE LOWS AND MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 6-7 FT EARLY FRI BEFORE INCREASING TO 7-9 FT AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KT THERE. $$ STRIPLING