000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281609 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N89W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 15N104.5W TO 16N119W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 16.5N123.5W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 119W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 104.5W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...HIGH PRES WEST OF THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH CENTER HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WEAK RIDGE NEAR 20N115W. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT WATERS LATE TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 13 FT NEAR AND WEST OF GUADALUPE ISLAND...7 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PUNCH THROUGH RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SPILL ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FRI...WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR A BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 104.5W...WHICH HAS FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTS FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND DISCONNECTS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING SAT AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A FEW WEAK AND SPORADIC PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE SW FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH...PERSISTENT SW SWELL IN THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. THE CONVERGING SW FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 108W. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE ALONG THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOW PRES AREA BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND DRIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR 13N110W BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE LOW PRES ENHANCED IN PART DUE TO NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS MOVING SW AND CENTERED NEAR 26.5N135.5W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0530 UTC INDICTED NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND CROSS W OF 140W TONIGHT. LOCALIZED SEAS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING TROUGH THE AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 16 FT TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRES. THE NW SWELL WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 125W THROUGH LATE THU. THE STRONG WINDS WILL END AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES W OF 140W TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FARTHER SOUTH...A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16.5N123.5W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE LIKELY 8 FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW. NW SWELL WILL OVERTAKE THE POSITION OF LOW BY LATE THU WITH BUILDING TO 9 FT. THIS LOW HAS BEEN IN THIS GENERALLY AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING