000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272216 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF HAS SHEARED AWAY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...AND OLAF HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 135.0W AT 1800 UTC AND MOVING NE NEAR 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. A 1734 RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 0600 UTC WED. ELSEWHERE LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NW OF THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS MIXING WITH THE WAVE FIELD CREATED BY THE LOW TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MAKE A SHARP SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TURN OVERNIGHT AS IS BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO ITS NW. THE WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KT OCCURRING ACROSS THE N AND NW PORTIONS WILL THEN EXPAND AND MERGE WITH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES W-SW AND REACHES W OF 140W THU MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FT ON WED. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2...NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 06N82W TO 13.5N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16.5N131W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 130W...AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 34N125W THAT EXTENDS S AND SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW BREEZE ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 20N W OF 115W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED EVENING...WHEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER S FRONT FROM 28N113.5W TO 24N120W TO 27N131W BY THU AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N AND E OF 125W. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. TO THE W OF 130W...CONFUSED SEAS WILL PREVAIL AS THE REMNANT LOW OF OLAF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SEAS OF 8-9 FT THAT WILL MIX WITH LARGE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA...AS MENTIONED ABOVE. S OF 15N E OF 130W...LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 130W...WITH THIS PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE TROPICS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG AND S OF THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF PULSING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. SEAS AROUND 8 FT CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS TWO ZONES ALONG AND S OF THE TROUGH...FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 121W AND 131W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W...WHERE SW WINDS NEAR 20 KT AREA CREATING WIND WAVES MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE MODESTLY IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON....WITH DOWNSTREAM SEAS AROUND 8 FT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 100.5W IN MERGING NE AND SW SWELL. SEA WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT LATER THIS EVENING. $$ STRIPLING