000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251521 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OLAF W OF 140W CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 143.6W AT 25/1500 UTC OR 799 NM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND 656 NM ENE OF HILO HAWAII. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP5/ WTPA25 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. OLAF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND CROSS 140W AS A TROPICAL STORM ON MON REACHING 26.2N 138.4W BY 0000 UTC TUE...THEN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT REACHES 29.0N 132.0W BY 1200 UTC WED...THEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE SW NEAR 25.5N 134.0W BY 1200 UTC THU BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY FRI. CURRENTLY SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS OUR NW WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 17N138W TO 16N140W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LOCALIZED FUNNELING OF SW-W WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF OAXACA MEXICO NEAR PUERTO ANGEL JUST TO THE SW OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SETUP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BEFORE SUNSET...THEN INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MON MORNING ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CHIVELA PASS AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL TO BUILD TO 12 FT BY MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 07N93W TO 08N100W THEN RESUMES FROM 18N102W TO 12N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N127W TO 10N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 82W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 102W ...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTERED W OF THE AREA...AND TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE WHILE BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER ALTIMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 5-8 FT SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION...FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO SW OF CLARION ISLAND. VERY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE REGION IS VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE N OF 20N. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELL AND STRONG NW WINDS W OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW. WEAK LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 90W W OF COSTA RICA...BUT WILL REMAIN ELONGATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT AS A DISTINCT LOW CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RESIDUAL SW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...A STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N127W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OR MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW PRES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY