000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242215 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN ILL DEFINED POST TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 100.6W AT 2100 UTC...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COASTS OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND JALISCO...AND HAVE OCCASIONALLY SPREAD WELL INLAND TO THE W SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR...WHILE MORE ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICO CITY AREA TO NEAR TAMPICO. THIS RAINFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL ZONES WILL COMPOUND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS LEFT BEHIND BY THE PASSAGE OF PATRICIA LAST NIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF NAYARIT...JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. LINGERING SWELLS GENERATED BY PATRICIA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N76W TO 10N92W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N103W TO 13N113W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 13N127W TO 13.5N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 08.5N E OF 100W...WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 134W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N...DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING W OF THE AREA AND PATRICIA INLAND OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH RESULTING IN FRESH S-SW WIND WAVES EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 120W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF ACAPULCO. MIXED SWELL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THESE WAVES RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 21N BETWEEN 96W AND 130W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND CONTRACT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS BY SUN MORNING SW OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MON MORNING ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG SW-W WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUN MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD S-SE ACROSS MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT USHERING IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF COMMENCING LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING BECOMES REQUIRED. SEAS ARE FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE TAFB-NWPS TO BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON MORNING. HURRICANE OLAF CONTINUES TO CHURN WEST OF 140W. SW SWELLS GENERATED BY OLAF ARE COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO GENERATE SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N140W MON NIGHT... LINGERING IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY TUE BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE W AND MOVING BACK W OF 140W BY WED NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING